IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
IBD/TIPP poll results
The results show that former New York Senator Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump are on equal standing, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from October 18 to October 23 via phone. A total of 815 likely voters responded. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. In the most recent IBD/TIPP poll on October 22 Clinton obtained only 49.4%, while Trump obtained 50.6%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.7%. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 3.7 percentage points worse in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% and Trump 45.9% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 4.1 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is significant.