Results of a new poll carried out by Detroit Free Press were published. The poll asked interviewees from Michigan for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Detroit Free Press poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 1 and October 3. The sample size was 600 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 56.5%. Relative to her numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, the PollyVote is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.