On October 12, FOX 13/Opinion Savvy released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions in this state are of particular importance.
FOX 13/Opinion Savvy poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees indicated to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 20. A total of 538 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.2 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Florida polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.3%. In comparison to her numbers in the FOX 13/Opinion Savvy poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.