Arizona: Small lead for Clinton in recent Arizona Republic poll
By Results of a new poll conducted by Arizona Republic were spread on October 23. The poll asked interviewees from Arizona for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Arizona Republic poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants intend to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 10 to October 15 among 0 participants. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton can currently count on 50.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Arizona. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Arizona Republic poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, the PollyVote is 5.1 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.
