OH Predictive Insights published the results of a new poll on October 23. In this poll, interviewees from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OH Predictive Insights poll results
According to the results, former First Lady Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump have the exact same level of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 28 to September 30. A total of 718 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Arizona has Clinton at 50.9% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.9 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 48.0% and Trump 52.0% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Clinton has 2 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Arizona. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.