OH Predictive Insights published the results of a new poll on October 19. In this poll, respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
OH Predictive Insights poll results
According to the results, the two candidates have the same level of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was in the field between September 28 and September 30. The sample size was 718 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Arizona polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.9 percentage points worse in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 48.7% and Trump 51.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Clinton has 1.3 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Arizona. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is significant.