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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.9% for Clinton, and 47.1% for Trump. In comparison, on October 23 Trump was still predicted to achieve 47.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 50.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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