Results of a new poll conducted by PPP (D) were published. The poll asked participants from West Virginia for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 30.0% of interviewees plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 57.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 29 to May 1 among 1201 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 34.5% for Clinton and 65.5% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 61.5% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 4.0 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.