The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 53.0% of the two-party vote share in Washington, while Trump will win 47.0%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to obtain 47.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Washington. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 5.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Washington.