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Virginia: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead


The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 44.4% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, whereas Trump will win 55.6%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to gain 55.7% of the vote.

Virginia is traditionally a purple state, where Republicans and Democrats have often gained similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is considered critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 45.9% of the two-party vote in Virginia. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 9.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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