The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 54.4% for Clinton, and 45.7% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to gain only 54.1% of the vote.
In Virginia, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single models can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.