Virginia: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 54.1% for Clinton, and 45.9% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to collect 55.0% of the vote.

In Virginia, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, because they may include large biases. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts. The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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