Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they may contain large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 67.1% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.