Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt poll results
Of those who answered the question, 33.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 19 to October 2, among a random sample of 1000 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 58.8% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.7 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.