Results of a new poll conducted by University of HoustonUniversity of Houston were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Texas for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
University of HoustonUniversity of Houston poll results
Of those who replied, 38.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 7 to October 15. A total of 1000 likely voters responded.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 48.1% for Clinton and 51.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump currently runs at 52.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Texas. Relative to his numbers in the University of HoustonUniversity of Houston poll Trump's poll average is 0.8 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Texas. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.2 points above his polling numbers.