Texas: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 44.7% of the two-party vote share in Texas, while Trump will win 55.3%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to win 45.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Texas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.