South Carolina: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.9% for Clinton, and 53.1% for Trump in South Carolina. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to garner 53.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, because they can incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in South Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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