The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 43.1% of the two-party vote share in Oklahoma, whereas Trump will win 56.9%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to collect 43.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.