The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.6% for Clinton, and 48.4% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to collect 48.7% of the vote.
In Ohio, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they can incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.8% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.