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North Carolina: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

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The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.6% for Clinton, and 52.4% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to gain 52.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.6% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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