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North Carolina: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead


The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.6% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will end up with 52.4%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to achieve 52.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.6% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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