DeSart model in New York: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 62.4% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will win 37.6%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New York.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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