Siena published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Siena poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 17 with 611 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.6 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they can contain large biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of New York polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 62.5%. In comparison to her numbers in the Siena poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is insignificant.