WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who replied, 57.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 16. A total of 502 likely voters responded. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-4.4 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Massachusetts sees Clinton at 64.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 0.6 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, Polly's forecast is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.