New Mexico: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead
The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton, and 47.8% for Trump in New Mexico.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 56.3% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Mexico.