The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 54.1% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, whereas Trump will end up with 46.0%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to win 54.1% of the vote.
Historically, New Hampshire has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts here are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, because they may contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.