The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 54.2% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will end up with 45.8%. In comparison, on October 22 Trump was predicted to gain 45.7% of the vote.
New Hampshire is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically won similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Hampshire.