Results of a new poll conducted by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of interviewees would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 17 to September 20 among 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can incorporate substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.4% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's prediction is 4.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is negligible.