The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.4% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will win 48.6%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was predicted to garner 48.5% of the vote.
In Nevada, the popular vote is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single models may include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.