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Nevada: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.4% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will win 48.6%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was predicted to garner 48.5% of the vote.

In Nevada, the popular vote is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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