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Montana: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.1% for Clinton, and 58.0% for Trump in Montana. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to win only 42.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 56.6% of the two-party vote in Montana. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Montana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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