Missouri: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 47.2% for Clinton, and 52.8% for Trump in Missouri. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to win 47.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Missouri. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Missouri.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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