The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 55.3% for Clinton, and 44.7% for Trump in Michigan. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to gain 44.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Michigan. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Michigan.