The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 55.3% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, while Trump will win 44.7%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to gain only 55.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, as they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Michigan. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.