The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 55.9% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, whereas Trump will end up with 44.1%. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to gain 56.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they often include large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Michigan. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.