Maryland: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead
The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 61.1% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, whereas Trump will win 39.0%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to win only 60.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 65.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 4.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.