Louisiana: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead
The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 46.8% for Clinton, and 53.2% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 46.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.