Louisiana: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 43.0% for Clinton, and 57.0% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to collect 56.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, since they can incorporate large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.3% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.