Latest IBD poll: Clinton and Trump in a tossup
By Results of a new national poll carried out by IBD were announced. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
The results show that 42.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 17 to October 22. A total of 783 participants responded. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not rely too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump. In the most recent IBD poll on October 21 Clinton received 50.0%, while Trump received only 50.0%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls has Trump at 46.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the IBD poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.0% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's prediction is 4.6 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.
