ABC News released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
ABC News poll results
The results show that 53.0% of interviewees plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from October 20 to October 22 among 874 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump. On October 13 Clinton received only 52.1% in the ABC News poll and Trump received 47.9%.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.6%. Relative to numbers in the ABC News poll Clinton's poll average is 2.8 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.4 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.