Jerome model in Wisconsin: Clinton is in the lead
The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 55.3% for Clinton, and 44.7% for Trump in Wisconsin. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to collect only 55.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Wisconsin.