Jerome model in West Virginia: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 46.3% for Clinton, and 53.7% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 46.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models often include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 61.5% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 7.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in West Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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