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Jerome model in Virginia: Trump is in the lead


The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 44.4% for Clinton, and 55.6% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to collect only 44.3% of the vote.

In Virginia, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 45.9% of the two-party vote in Virginia. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 9.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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