Jerome model in Texas: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.8% for Clinton, and 53.2% for Trump in Texas.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Texas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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