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Jerome model in South Carolina: Trump is in the lead


The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 46.9% of the two-party vote share in South Carolina, while Trump will end up with 53.1%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to win only 46.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in South Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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