The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton, and 46.5% for Trump in Pennsylvania.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Pennsylvania.