Jerome model in Ohio: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.6% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 48.4%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 51.3% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Single models may contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.8% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.