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Jerome model in New York: Clinton is in the lead


The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 59.0% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will win 41.0%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 58.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New York.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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