Jerome model in New Jersey: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 57.6% for Clinton, and 42.4% for Trump in New Jersey. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was predicted to collect 42.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, don't be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Jersey.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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