Jerome model in New Jersey: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 57.6% for Clinton, and 42.4% for Trump in New Jersey. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was predicted to gain 42.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Jersey.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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