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Jerome model in New Hampshire: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton, and 46.0% for Trump in New Hampshire. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to gain 54.1% of the vote.

In New Hampshire, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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